In my previous analysis I zoomed into one of my scenarios from my previous analysis, and laid down some criteria for whether the bounce was going to work or not. Let’s review the quotes I said from the previous analysis:
“That’s good stuff… But doesn’t mean a lot if some factors don’t come into play”
“Bitcoin did just hit the massive converging moving average resistance above, and needs to break and retest that to confirm the bounce actually worked before this qualifies as a successful analysis.”
“The candle before was a huge red one, so the bounce isn’t majorly exciting, it’s just something to take heed of.”
“Just because it bounced that does NOT mean buy. No point jumping in early and facing these obstacles… Just wait, watch a movie, sit on your hands, something…”
Let’s see. Did any of these conditions happen above? NO. They all failed completely therefore invalidating the analysis. In a way I’m relieved it failed, a bounce at that level would have meant we’re in a minefield watching for a correction for a while… Regardless of this, I will ALWAYS make analysis on possible movements, even if I DONT believe in them or see them as a possibility.
Why make an analysis of a scenario that you don’t like/see happening you ask?
Because what sort of idiot would I be to ignore a scenario just because “I did not like it”… If I ignored scenarios in trading because I simply did not like them, I’d be fired from all my previous finance jobs, not to mention probably bankrupting myself because I believe that trading only what I “FEEL” is logical.
The sooner the newer traders realise the above information, the better.
Onto the analysis…
Bitcoin 1.15% failed at the side-wards support, quite epically I might add. Now we’re going down to the horizontal to see if we can get another POSSIBLE buy at this level. If we can get a bounce here, it’d definitely be my favourite scenario.
If we break below the zone, we’re breaking long term support which is actually quite concerning, so I will be keeping the idea updated regarding this scenario taking place.
Trade carefully, it’s a tough one out there at the moment.
Where do YOU think price is headed? Leave a comment with a chart and let’s share our thoughts!
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