Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let’s get right to it! Looking at the four hour** chart, you can see that BTC -7.77% has been going nowhere fast, after last week’s selloff. Technically, this is a consolidation (in blue.) The bottom of the flag is a little sloppy, but these things don’t have to be perfect. You can see that the current candle has dropped below the flag (if you draw it as a ) with an uptick in sell side . However, the bottom of the triangle is holding strong. It’s pretty clear that the bottom of the triangle is the line in the sand. If the bears are able to produce a breakdown, it will be the first step in a series of events that will likely lead to much lower prices.
Assuming that the current candle is a breakdown candle from the , we can use the height of the flagpole as a gauge of maximum fall potential. Interestingly, you can see that it puts the price of BTC -7.77% down around my first two targets. Target number one is at $4970 and target number two is at $4492. The size of the current projects a potential decline to around the $4600 area, which is very much inline with the major downside support levels that I have discussed in recent analyses. However, for this to really be set in motion, the bears need to close below the red triangle. Then, the selling is very likely to accelerate.
We’re looking at the four hour chart, because it’s my favorite time-frame for looking at intraday action like this. I am a huge fan of the 4 hour , when trying to determine short-term swings. As you can see, the is starting to flatten out, and if the sellers continue to push down toward the bottom of the triangle (as they appear to be doing) it should produce a crossover on the . Crossovers on the 4 hour can be very powerful timing indicators, particularly when they are confirmed by other technical factors. In this case, we are falling from a , after a rapid decline, under critical rising support, and inside of the apex of a symmetrical traingle. , , . At this point, a four hour crossover, coupled with a breakdown from the triangle, will be a great sell signal. My eye is set on the aforementioned targets, should the proposed breakdown occur. Right now, the bulls need a miracle, and we all know how likely that is.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Comment: And there you have it…